Here's my (mammoth) piece of conjecture spun into an ashes preview (of sorts):
1. Form
You might say that going into an Ashes series, this matters little, but the diverging fortunes of the two sides in the last year can’t pass without at least some comment. Yes, England could have played against more taxing opposition recently and yes, their most recent test opponents were a complete shambles, mired in ugly spot-fixing allegations, but they still performed admirably to defeat those sides largely comprehensively. And not forgetting the draw in South Africa at the turn of the year in a compelling series against one of cricket’s best sides (the true test of just how good this current India side are will come in England next summer).
Australia, by contrast, have had a wretched time, losing a test series to Pakistan in England in June, losing in India and then losing a home one-day series to Sri Lanka. In days of yore, even the best Aussie sides struggled in India but they never, ever lost at home. When we talk about the idea of the Ockers losing their ‘aura’ case for the prosecution begins with their home form; This is backed up by sluggish ticket sales for this series which gives an indication of the confidence (or lack thereof) of the usually bullish Aussie punter.
2. Pressure
Ricky Ponting is a man under pressure. He does not, under any circumstances, want to be the captain who loses the Ashes three times (and lets England win on Australian soil for the first time in 25 years). Cricket Australia is under pressure, as can be seen from the recent reshuffling in the selection panel and all the little arguments that must surely have occurred for this to have taken place.
Marcus North is under pressure; He has been talked about as ‘captaincy material’ and a potential successor to Ponting – a number of players have been vocal in their support for the left-hander and he is clearly a popular character, yet after a good start in 2008/9 he has seriously under-delivered with bat in hand and this series is surely his last throw of the dice. Similarly Michael Hussey, the lynchpin of the One-Day side, has had a rotten last 18 months and the public is losing patience with ‘Mr Cricket’. Neither player has scored meaningfully in state cricket recently, and they are both having their positions squeezed by batsmen who have; Most notably stylish New South Wales left-hander Usman Khawaja and Callum Ferguson.
England will have a degree of expectation themselves, having been talked up much prior to jetting down under and enjoying a profitable warm-up schedule. They will be the most confidant Ashes squad for some time, so they must ensure they are not overawed by the occasion or pressurized into errors by the Aussie bowlers. But Andrew Strauss is a shrewd, respected captain and Andy Flower clearly has a very good idea of his favoured starting XI. In this respect, things bode well.
3. The game-breaker
Graeme Swann is no shrinking violet, and seemingly revels in the label of being England’s “go-to” wicket-taking bowler. The Nottinghamshire offie simply has a knack of taking big wickets at the right time, and has demonstrated that he does not need helpful pitches to do so (South Africa is hardly renowned for its dustbowl pitches yet he positively thrived there last winter). Australia tried to target Swann last year, with precious little success, and he will be expected to be a pivotal figure once again. Also capable of delivering valuable runs down the order, it seems fair to assume that, if Swann bowls well, England stand a hugely improved chance of winning. By contrast, Nathan Hauritz is a widely derided choice of spinner for the Aussies, who appears to possess neither the guile nor the appreciable turn Swann can deliver in spades. Young Leggy Steven Smith is a popular choice to replace him, but it is likely the selectors, traditionally a conservative bunch, will stick with Hauritz barring a disaster early on. Quite simply, for once spin is an area where England have the edge over their great rivals.
4. A settled attack
What is Australia’s first-choice bowling attack? Mitchell Johnson, for all his faults, appears a shoo-in, but who should join him? Doug Bollinger has been a regular, but is racing to be fit in time for the first test and, if he succeeds, will be understandably rusty; Ben Hilfenhaus swung the ball in England but is not always threatening; Peter Siddle is another one coming back from a succession of injuries. Without Brett Lee, there is a notable lack of fear in that attack. Then there’s the unknown quantities, such as beanpole Peter George (who toiled in India, but then who doesn’t, on debut?) and Ryan Harris, who has taken lots of wickets this season but is untried in test cricket. The Aussie selectors face a tough task getting a settled attack together and fitting them around a spinner.
By contrast, it seems fairly clear that England will go in with one spinner (Swann) plus, at least to begin with, Broad, Anderson and Finn. The concerns about their ability to swing the Kookaburra ball have been allayed by their form in the warm-ups, and the back-ups seem reasonable; Chris Tremlett is fast and will extract bounce; Shazhad is a dangerous reverse swing merchant and Bresnan takes wickets too. This has been the case throughout the last 6 months or so. England look to have a more settled, consistent bowling attack and, if anything, Broad and Anderson have improved since 2009.
5. Run-scorers
Going into the tour the main concern for England was the batting form of Messrs Cook, Pietersen and Collingwood. All valid points – Pietersen without a test century since March 2009, Collingwood enduring a wretched 2010, Cook looking nervous and tentative in his footwork. The omens from the warm-up are initially positive; All have made runs, Pietersen is still clearly not 100% at his best but, if he can raise his game against anyone, it is the Australians. Cook scored a much-needed hundred in the South Australia warm-up game; Collingwood has the mental toughness to see off any lapse in form and of course made a memorable double ton on his last Ashes tour. All three, while not at their best, could not be described as ‘horribly out of form’ as a result and Pietersen especially should prosper in Australian conditions.
Add to that the reliable accumulation of Strauss, Trott and Matt Prior (yes, I know, I can’t believe it either, but he’s done well recently) and you have a relatively positive outlook. Trott’s importance as a gritty competitor can’t be underestimated; The sort of player that, wearing the baggy green, would have infuriated England in the past.
On the Australian side, expect Shane Watson to prosper and Simon Katich to enthral us all with his gorgeous technique (yeah right – but he’s effective) and the returning Brad Haddin can usually provide some middle order muscle. Australia’s problem essentially is not so much form as a worrying tendency to give their wicket away; Ponting, Hussey, North and Clarke have all been guilty in the recent past of getting starts then getting out. This was exposed in 2009 by Broad et al first of all, and does not appear to have been rectified. Of course, on their day the likes of Ponting and Clarke can still punish bowling attacks, but recently those days have become further and further apart. Plus, England have their wildcard; Improvising, rubber-wristed little genius Eoin Morgan, who so irritated the Aussies in the one dayers last year.
Prediction
Australia are not to be written off (even though it would appear I’ve done just that) but England have enough in their arsenal to win, if they play to the level we know they can. 2-1 win for England and a memorable retention of the urn.
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