England are soon to go into battle against Pakistan on neutral ground in the Arabian desert. With a fine 12 months behind them - well, excepting the 50-over format - England are widely fancied to win the series and maintain their number one ranking, increasing the gap while they're at it. But for all that they will start favourites, it behoves us all to take a moment to consider five reasons why Pakistan are nobodies pushover.
1. Experience of conditions
The UAE presents a new experience for all the England players. Pakistan, by contrast, are embarking on their third 'home' series played there. The pitches are laid on top of clay from Pakistan and have proved to be quite sub-continental in their make-up - slow, low turners. Swing tends to work - England have the edge there, for sure - but there is a great change in character between the old ball and the new and that is something new for the England batsmen to deal with.
2. Spin
England have the best spin bowler in the world at the moment. What Pakistan have is options. Saeed Ajmal has been superb on these desert tracks while Mohammad Hafeez, Azhar Ali and Asad Shafiq are more than useful part-timers. By contrast, England look certain to be going in with Swann and the part-time option of Kevin Pietersen. If the Pakistan batsmen get after Pietersen and knock him out of the attack, England have a problem. If the England batsmen knock one of the Pakistan spinners around, there are three more waiting in the wings.
3. No fear
While spinners will play a big part with the old ball, pace and swing are key up front. Pakistan may have lost two of their finer exponents to Her Majesty's pleasure, but they keep turning up young tyros who can wang it down at speed and with control. Aizaz Cheema and Junaid Khan are the latest pair, a right-arm/left-arm combo, and both had successes against Sri Lanka where they bowled at some true greats of the game without any fear. They won't care what the England top order's career records look like. They'll just got out and knock you over - literally or metaphorically, either is fine.
4. Revenge
Statements to the press may say otherwise, but after what happened on their last tour of England there's more than an element of revenge in the air ahead of this one. Accusations flew this way and that and nobody in that party escaped suspicion. Since the verdicts came down, Ajmal and Shahid Afridi (not playing in the Tests, but back for the ODIs and T20s) emerged as anti-corruption heroes. Misbah-ul-Haq has presided over a new-look side untainted by the stench of what went before and now this is an opportunity to show everyone they can beat the best without any hint of it not being totally legitimate. That's a powerful incentive.
5. Tim Bresnan
The Yorkshireman only deals in Test victories. In ten matches for his country, England have won ten times. Indeed, the closest that the opposition has come in this time is either the 181-run or 8-wicket wins over Bangladesh. 40% of the time that Tim Bresnan plays for England, they win by an innings. He averages 45 with the bat and 24 with the ball, so it's far more than coincidence. Moreover, he provides a great deal of the balance to the team. Despite the impressive figures, they may be exaggerated by dint of having played so few games and it takes a leap of logic to suggest he's a genuine all-rounder rather than a bowler who can bat. See also Graeme Swann and Stuart Broad, but add all three of those together and you have the equivalent of a genuine all-rounder, just spread over three different individuals. Bresnan is hugely important to how England set up and he is a big loss.
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